Thomas L. Friedman
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
The 2 is back. Last week, U.S. retail gasoline prices fell below $3 a gallon - to an average of $2.91 - the lowest level in almost a year. Why does this news leave me with mixed feelings?
Because in the middle of this wrenching economic crisis, with unemployment rising and 401(k)s shrinking, it would be a real source of relief for many Americans to get a break at the pump. Today's declining gasoline prices act like a tax cut for consumers and can save $15 to $20 a tank-full for an SUV-driving family, compared with when gasoline was $4.11 a gallon in July.
Yet, it is impossible for me to ignore the fact that when gasoline hit $4.11 a gallon Americans changed - a lot. Americans drove less, polluted less, exercised more, rode more public transportation and, most importantly, overwhelmed Detroit with demands for smaller, more fuel-efficient, hybrid and electric cars. The clean-energy and efficiency industries saw record growth - one of America's few remaining engines of real quality job creation.
But with little credit available today for new energy start-ups, and lower oil prices making it harder for existing renewables like wind and solar to scale, and a weak economy making it nearly impossible for Congress to pass a carbon tax or gasoline tax that would make clean energy more competitive, what will become of America's budding clean-tech revolution?
This moment feels to me like a bad B-movie rerun of the 1980s. And I know how this movie ends - with America's re-addiction to oil and OPEC, as well as corrosive uncertainty for the U.S. economy, trade balance, security and environment.
"Is the economic crisis going to be the end of green?" asks David Rothkopf, energy consultant and author of "Superclass." "Or, could green be the way to end the economic crisis?"
It has to be the latter. We can't afford a financial bailout that also isn't a green buildup - a buildup of a new clean energy industry that strengthens the U.S. and helps the planet.
But how do we do that without any policy to affect the price signal for gasoline and carbon?
Here are some ideas: First, Washington could impose a national renewable energy standard that would require every utility in the country to produce 20 percent of its power from clean, non-
CO²-emitting, energy sources - wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, biomass - by 2025. About half the states already have these in place, but they are all different. It would create a huge domestic pull for renewable energy if we had a uniform national mandate.
Second, Washington could impose a national requirement that every state move its utilities to a system of "decoupling-plus." This is the technical term for changing the way utilities make money - shifting them from getting paid for how much electricity or gas they get you to consume to getting paid for how much electricity or gas they get you to save. Several states have already moved down this path.
Third, an idea offered by Andy Karsner, former assistant secretary of energy, would be to modify the tax code so that any company that invests in new domestic manufacturing capacity for clean energy technology - or procures any clean energy system or energy savings device that is made by an American manufacturer - can write down the entire cost of the investment via a tax credit and/or accelerated depreciation in the first year.
"I'm talking about anything from energy-efficient windows to water heaters to industrial boilers to solar panels, and the job-creating, manufacturing facilities that produce them - anything that makes us more efficient, lean and economically competitive and comes from a domestic, American source," said Karsner.
He also suggests using some of the money from any stimulus package to directly incentivize and support states' efforts to implement and intelligently modernize their building codes to get already well-established national "best practices" quickly into their marketplaces.
Lastly, America needs the next president to be an energy efficiency trendsetter, starting by reinventing the inaugural parade. Get rid of the black stretch limos and double-plated armored Chevy Tahoes inching down Pennsylvania Avenue. Instead, let the next president announce that he will use no vehicles on Inauguration Day that get less than 30 miles per gallon. He could invite all car companies to participate in the historic drive with their best available American-made, fuel-efficient, innovative vehicle.
Finally, if Congress passes another stimulus package, it can't just be another round of $600 checks to go buy flat-screen TVs made in China. It has to also include bridges to somewhere - targeted investments in scientific research, mass transit, domestic clean-tech manufacturing and energy efficiency that will make us a more productive and innovative society, one with more skills, more competitiveness, more productivity and better infrastructure to lead the next great industrial revolution: ET - energy technology.
6 months ago