World - US;Bad Diagnosis for McCain

Andrei Fedyashin

John McCain’s only hope now is for the Bradley effect, when the inaccurate polls are skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias.


The final week before presidential elections in the United States, to be held on November 4, is always the hardest, especially when no one is certain of the outcome and your guess is as good as the next person’s.

It is the worst week for the presidential hopefuls and for the voters, including the passive and undecided, those who think they know who to vote for, the white electorate, Afro-Americans, Spanish speakers, men, women, students, janitors, hairdressers and sailors. Voters are surveyed more often and with varied methods during the final week. At the beginning of the presidential campaign, they were polled once every two weeks, then weekly, and now daily.

Polls are part of the election campaign, not only because they spotlight a trend, but also because they can change it. John McCain’s numbers went up when Barack Obama left to visit his ailing grandma for a week in Hawaii. Sometimes, in the complicated world of American election surveys when a candidate goes away, his rival tries to bolt the door behind him.

While Mr. Obama was nursing his grandmother, Mr. McCain cut the gap to 5 per cent from 10 per cent – 13 per cent the week before, by making incredible economic promises. If America elects him, he will be sorry for the rest of his life because no one can fulfil such promises without a “friendly neighbourhood genie.” Such promises are usually made when the candidate is desperate, when he would do anything to pull the rug out from under his rival.

Since October 27, Mr. McCain’s campaign had been doing its best to close the gap, because this is all it can do now. The situation is bad on all counts, and Mr. McCain’s only hope now is for the Bradley effect, when the inaccurate polls are skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias.

The Bradley effect is named for Tom Bradley, the long-time African-American mayor of Los Angeles, who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial race despite being ahead of his Republican rival by 7 per cent in some voter polls. It refers to an alleged tendency on the part of some voters to tell pollsters they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his/her white opponent.

Post-election analysis by Mervin Field, whose California Field Poll showed Bradley up seven points in the campaign’s final stage, also highlighted the role of race, but emphasised that that alone would not have been enough to turn around the Democrat’s lead.

But gubernatorial elections differ dramatically from the presidential race, and California is a specific state whose sentiments are difficult to project to the rest of the United States. Non-Californians say few Americans would weep if California broke off along the San Andreas Fault line and sank into the ocean.

But sentiments in the other states are more important, and they are not favouring Mr. McCain. He is fighting for minor points even in the states where George W. Bush won easily during the 2004 election. There are about 12 such states, which had previously voted Republican but now question the correctness of the Republican line under Bush and McCain.

Racial bias has not been completely outgrown in the U.S., which is logical given the proportions of white, black and Spanish-speaking Americans. But it would be erroneous to assume that they will seriously affect the November 4 polls. There is no more racism in the U.S. than in Britain, but anti-racism demonstrations are indeed more outspoken there. By voting for Mr. Obama, Americans will make their choice above all against George Bush. They have no illusions left about the Republicans, Bush, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the financial crisis, which has gobbled up a substantial part of their pension accruals within two months.

They want something new, even if it is a new colour. The Democrats definitely bear their part of responsibility for the crisis, but the Republicans have resided in the White House for too long.

It looks as if Mr. Obama will win. The only uncertain category is the margin by which he will win.

It will not be large, because the Democrats have not won large in the recent past. Franklin Delano Roosevelt ensured the Democrats landslide victories, but this was before WWII. John Kennedy defeated Nixon with only 0.1% of the vote, and Bill Clinton outpaced George Bush Sr. with 5.3 per cent in 1992.

Even the Republican Party’s “big guns” do not believe in Mr. McCain’s victory. Colin Powell, former chief of staff and Secretary of State, publicly endorsed Mr. Obama several weeks ago.

This week David Frum, who wrote President Bush’s famous antiterrorist speech in January 2002 denouncing Iran, Iraq and North Korea as the “axis of evil,” said openly in The Washington Post that Americans are “almost certainly looking at a Democratic White House.” — RIA Novosti