World -US;Foul calls on voter fraud

Michael Tomasky


With avenues to victory in the presidential race closing fast, Republicans are now laying the groundwork for casting doubt on the results. Prepare yourself for lurid tales, these next two-and-a-half weeks, of “voter fraud.”

Here’s the situation. Turnout in America is lower than in other countries — we consider 55-60 per cent an achievement. The 40-45 per cent of Americans who do not vote, studies show, tend to be from lower-income and more African-American and Latino households than the general population. In other words, more Democratic.

Hence, Democrats are forever trying to expand the electorate. In the past two years, they have registered huge numbers of voters in some important states. In Florida this year, for example, Democrats have added about 450,000 voters, Republicans just 170,000.

Republicans have always tried to suppress turnout, sometimes by fair means but often by foul. Every election season in black communities across the U.S., mysterious handbills appear warning citizens — untruthfully — that if they owe back taxes or even parking tickets, they can’t vote. Voting machines have tended to “malfunction” on election day at a higher rate in black areas than in white. None of this, of course, is ever traceable.

This is what we historically call voter suppression. Republicans, ever alert to opportunities to spoon-feed the media storylines proving that “both sides” are guilty of excess, have countered with narratives about voter fraud. But how real is voter fraud? It exists here and there, no doubt. But a study by a Columbia University found that between 2002 and 2005, the U.S. Justice Department won just 24 successful voter-fraud convictions — in the entire country — during the same period that the department made such prosecutions a high priority.

If this is a crime wave, we could do with many more like it.

This year, with an African-American Democratic nominee and black turnout expected to hit record levels, the effort has gone into overdrive. One nationwide community organising group, Acorn, stands accused of all manner of fraudulent voter registration. The group acknowledges that some of its organisers did pad out their numbers. But it says it fired them.

FBI leak



A few days ago, the FBI leaked that it was investigating Acorn — interesting timing, no? A former federal prosecutor in New Mexico, a conservative Republican who was controversially fired by the Bush administration in large part because he did not see voter fraud as a major criminal enterprise, says the investigation smells to high heaven. “I’m astounded that this issue is being trotted out again,” he told the website, Talking Points Memo, on Thursday. “Based on what I saw in 2004 and 2006, it’s a scare tactic.”

It’s that, all right, but it’s more. Republicans are bracing themselves for a John McCain loss. They probably don’t believe that “exposing” large-scale fraud can salvage the election for them. But they may well be thinking along other lines.

Suppose Barack Obama wins, but a narrower victory than expected. Say he gets 284 electoral votes, and that 20 of those 284 come from Ohio. Since 270 are needed to win, Ohio will be the difference between victory and defeat. And suppose the Ohio vote is outside the margin that automatically triggers a recount, as was the case in Florida in 2000, but is still moderately close — 3 per cent or so.

You can bet in such a case that the Republicans will challenge the result. They will find a few cases of people voting from the wrong address. Their propagandists on the Fox News channel will follow. They likely won’t prevail, but the effort will have the crucial effect of casting doubt on Mr. Obama’s legitimacy and impinging on his mandate.

The Obama people know all this, which is why they’re working for a margin that would make such challenges moot. In the meantime, as you hear and read the sensational stories, remember the 24-person crime wave. — © Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2008