Kate Zernike and Monica Davey
Whether the Republican presidential ticket wins or loses on Tuesday, a group of prominent conservatives are planning to meet the next day to discuss the way forward, and whatever the outcome, Governor Sarah Palin will be high on the agenda.
Palin, of Alaska, has had a rocky time since being named as Senator John McCain's running mate, but to many conservatives her future remains bright. If McCain wins, she will give the social conservative movement a seat inside the White House. If he loses, she could emerge as a standard bearer for the movement and a potential presidential candidate in 2012, albeit one who will need to address her considerable political damage.
Her prospects, in or out of government, are the subject of intensive conversations among conservative leaders, including the group that will meet next Wednesday in rural Virginia to weigh social, foreign policy and economic issues, as well as the political landscape and the next presidential election.
Palin's aides insist that winning this time around is her sole objective. But there are signs that she, too, is making sure that she is well positioned for the future if she and McCain lose.
In a week that most candidates give over to big rallies and closing arguments, she is giving policy speeches, like one on Wednesday on energy security, a move aides say is intended to help her be seen as more substantive.
On Monday, she held a meeting with the Israeli ambassador, reflecting an interest that aides say she expresses in intense foreign policy tutorials. She has increasingly separated herself from McCain's positions, and this week tried to isolate herself from the damage caused by news that the Republican National Committee spent $150,000 on clothing and accessories for her and her family.
More and more, she has broken out of the cloister imposed early on by McCain aides, doing more interviews with local television stations and newspapers, and speaking off the cuff to reporters who travel with her.
Despite all the criticism, she has many supporters among Republicans who see her as bright, tough and a star in a party with relatively few on the horizon.
"She's dynamite," said Morton Blackwell, who was President Ronald Reagan's liaison to the conservative movement. Blackwell described vying to get close to Palin at a fund-raiser in Virginia, lamenting that he could get only within 4 feet, or 1.2 meters.
"I made a major effort to position myself at this reception," he said, adding that he is eager to sit down with her after the election to discuss the future. Asked if the weeks of unflattering revelations and damaging interviews had tarnished her among conservatives, he replied, "Not a bit."
Brent Bozell, president of the Media Research Center, a conservative group, called it a "top order of business" to determine Palin's future role. "Conservatives have been looking for leadership, and she has proven that she can electrify the grass roots like few people have in the last 20 years," Bozell said. "No matter what she decides to do, there will be a small mother lode of financial support behind her."
The presidential campaign has allowed Palin to develop as a candidate, and to make many useful connections as she travels the country. On the campaign, she has become close to people with extensive experience in Republican politics, including Steve Biegun and Randy Scheunemann, two foreign policy conservatives.
She has received extensive policy tutorials and been briefed on foreign policy almost daily. Aides say she has taken particular interest in Pakistan and Israel and in causes of Islamic extremism, which she has related to the economic despair that plagues parts of Alaska.
People loyal to her say Palin is well aware of the political job in front of her. One aide said she had "gotten on the offensive," pushing to include more policy in her speeches. "It's important for her personally, for how she's perceived, to ensure that she gets to show her depth."
In a development that could be telling whether or not she ends up as vice president, she has also been asserting her independence from the McCain campaign. She disagreed publicly with the decision to stop campaigning in Michigan and questioned the use of automated calls and the decision not to bring up Senator Barack Obama's relationship with his controversial former pastor, Jeremiah Wright. She said she would release her medical records after the campaign declared she would not, and has in the past week even wandered over to talk to reporters who travel with her, sending staff members scurrying to cut off conversations.
Palin's rallies have drawn many times more supporters than McCain's, with people waving eager signs: "Palin Power," "Iowa is Palin Country," "Super Sarah," "You betcha!"
Matthew Dowd, a former Bush strategist, said Palin's challenge was to show substance.
"She's an attractive woman who can give a great speech, but the American public doesn't view her much beyond that," Dowd said.
"She's vastly unpopular among moderate and independent voters, and while she could be in a position to be popular among an increasingly smaller Republican Party, she's got to figure out a way to extend that and figure out a way to strengthen her weaknesses."
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